Analysis of economic viability with the use of monte carlo simulation for microgeneration of photovoltaic energy

Main Article Content

José Antonio de Miranda Lammoglia
Nilson Brandalise

Abstract

A series of public policies are being adopted worldwide to seek greater participation of renewable energy sources in the energy matrix. Brazil is a country that has a predominantly renewable energy source, with hydroelectric energy being responsible for the largest portion, but with enormous potential to be exploited for solar energy. The objective of this study was to carry out an analysis of the economic viability of a photovoltaic matrix in the distributed microgeneration model from the residential consumer perspective. Through the Monte Carlo simulation, 10.000 iterations were performed and the NPV was calculated in each of them, then counted to recover the corresponding output probability distribution and verified the NPV probability to be greater than zero. The developed method has proved to be a reliable tool to support decision making and can be applied to several scenarios. The scenario adopted for the design of the photovoltaic system presented a 95.2% probability of returning with an NPV above zero and this makes it economically feasible. The main contribution of this paper is the replicability of the methodology used for other economic analysis studies.

Article Details

Section
Articles

References

BASTIDAS-RODRIGUEZ, J. D. et al. (2017) Quantification of photovoltaic module degradation using model based indicators. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, v. 131, p. 101–113.

BRANDALISE, N.; CARDOSO, R. (2010) Análise de risco em estudo de viabilidade econômico-financeira com o uso da simulação de Monte Carlo para o comércio de água mineral. XXX ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ENGENHARIA DE PRODUÇÃO.

DONG, R.; XU, J.; LIN, B. (2017) ROI-based study on impact factors of distributed PV projects by LSSVM-PSO. Energy, v. 124, p. 336–349.

FERREIRA, A. et al. (2018) Economic overview of the use and production of photovoltaic solar energy in brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, v. 81, n. June 2017, p. 181–191.

GITMAN., L. J. (2013) Princípios de administração financeira. 12. ed. São Paulo: Pearson Education do Brasil.

HUANG, C.; WANG, L. (2018) Simulation study on the degradation process of photovoltaic modules. Energy Conversion and Management, v. 165, n. March, p. 236–243.

MINISTÉRIO DE MINAS E ENERGIA. (2017) Balanço Energético Nacional.

OLIVEIRA, M. A. (2016) O impacto do ICMS na Geração Distribuída no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Energias Renováveis, v. 5, n. 3, p. 407–417.

PILLOT, B.; DE SIQUEIRA, S.; DIAS, J. B. (2018) Grid parity analysis of distributed PV generation using Monte Carlo approach: The Brazilian case. Renewable Energy, v. 127, p. 974–988.

ROMERO, D. C.; LOURENÇO, F. R. (2017) Measurement uncertainty of dissolution test of acetaminophen immediate release tablets using Monte Carlo simulations. Brazilian Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences, v. 53, n. 3, p. 1–9.

VILLALVA, M.; GAZOLI, J.; FILHO, E. (2009) Comprehensive Approach to Modeling and Simulation of Photovoltaic Arrays. IEEE Transactions on Power Electronics, v. 24, n. 5, p. 1198–1208.

ZOMER, C.; URBANETZ, J.; RÜTHER, R. (2011) Grid-Connected building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) at low-latitude sites. Building and Environment, v. 46, n. 10, p. 2107–2113.

Similar Articles

1 2 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.