Periodicity.: January - March 2017
e-ISSN......: 2236-269X
Cover Image

The analysis of the determinants of housing prices

Viktorija Cohen, Lina Karpavičiūtė

Abstract


Fundamental determinants of housing prices which affect housing demand and supply are the most common in developed countries. These are economic and financial determinants as well as demographic indicators. However, housing price analysis in less developed countries submit controversial and not sufficient results about the impact of interest rate, inflation and unemployment. Moreover, it does not investigate the influence of demographic variables and the means of economic policy. In this article the effect of GDP, unemployment, inflation, interest rate, emigration and the means of macroprudential policy on housing prices in Lithuania was evaluated. The results showed that inflation, interest rate and emigration are not causal determinants of housing prices, which mostly depend on GDP, unemployment, the means of macroprudential policy and the average housing prices in the previous period.

Keywords


housing price determinants; housing market; macroprudential policy; emigration; transition economy

Full Text:

PDF HTML

References


ADAMS, Z.; FÜSS, R. (2010) Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets. Journal Of Housing Economics, v. 19, n. 1, p. 38–50. doi: 10.1016/j.jhe.2009.10.005.

AGNELLO, L.; SCHUKNECHT, L. (2011) Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications. Journal of Housing Economics, v. 20, n. 3, p. 171–190. doi: 0.1016/j.jhe.2011.04.001.

AZBAINIS, V. (2014) Lietuvos nekilnojamojo turto rinkos ciklo poveikis Lietuvos ekonomikai. Lietuvos turto vertintojai – 20 metų veiklos patirtis nacionalinės ir Europos ekonominės erdvės kontekste. Konferencijos, vykusios Vilniuje Vilniaus universitete 2014 m. kovo 28 d., mokslo darbai. Lietuvos turto vertintojų asociacija, Vilniaus universiteto ekonomikos fakultetas. Vilnius, p. 17–34.

CROWE, C.; DELL’ ARICCIA, G.; IGAN, D.; RABANAL, P. (2011) How to deal with real estate booms: lessons from country experiences: Working Paper. International Monetary Fund, Research Department.

DIETZ, R. D.; HAURIN, D. R. (2003) The social and private micro-level consequences of homeownership. Journal of Urban Economics, v. 54, n. 3, p. 401–450. doi: 10.1016/S0094-1190(03)00080-9.

GRANGER, C. W. J. (1969) Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spetrical Methods. Econometrica, v. 37, n. 3, p. 424–438. doi: 10.2307/1912791.

GUJARATI, D. N.; PORTER, D. C. (2009) Basic Econometrics. 5th ed. Boston: McGraw-Hill.

CHEN, Y.; KENNETH, G.; LEISHMAN, C.; WRIGHT, R. (2012) The impact of population ageing on house prices: a micro-simulation approach. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, v. 59, n. 5, p. 523–542.

CHU, Y. (2014) Credit constraints, inelastic supply and the housing boom. Review of economic dynamics, v. 17, n. 1, p. 52–69. doi: 10.1016/j.red.2013.06.001.

IVANAUSKAS, F.; EIDUKEVIČIUS, R.; MARČINDKAS, A.; GALINIENĖ, B. (2008) Analysis of the housing market in Lithuania. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, v. 12, n. 4, p. 271–280.

JACOBSEN, D. H.; NAUG, B. (2005) What drives house prices? Economic Bulletin (Norges Bank), v. 76, n. 1, p. 29–42.

JUREVIČIENĖ, D.; OKUNEVIČIŪTĖ NEVERAUSKIENĖ, L. (2008) Būsto įsigijimo sąlygų įtaka jaunimui įsitvirtinti nacionalinėje darbo rinkoje. Business: Theory & Practice, v. 9, n. 2, p. 116–125. doi: 10.3846/1648-0627.2008.9.116-124.

KOPCKE, R. W. (2000) Valiutų valdybos: praeities ar ateities pinigų politikos režimas? Pinigų studijos, n. 2, p. 5–21.

LEIKA, M.; VALENTINAITĖ, M. (2007) Būsto kainų kitimo veiksniai ir bankų elgsena Vidurio ir Rytų Europos šalyse. Pinigų studijos, n. 2, p. 5–23.

LIETUVOS, B. (2015) Finansinio stabilumo apžvalga 2015. Available: https://www.lb.lt/finansinio_stabilumo_apzvalga_2015_m

LIETUVOS, B.; VILIBID ir VILIBOR. Available at: http://www.lb.lt/statistics/statbrowser.aspx?group=7222〈=lt&orient=horz Access: 17/12/2015.

LIETUVOS B. (2011) Valdybos nutarimas Dėl atsakingojo skolinimo nuostatų Nr. 03-144. Valstybės žinios, n. 111-5262.

LIETUVOS STATISTIKOS DEPARTAMENTAS. BVP, to meto kainomis. Available: http://osp.stat.gov.lt/statistiniu-rodikliu-analize?id=5401&status=N Access: 02/10/2015.

LIETUVOS STATISTIKOS DEPARTAMENTAS. Mėnesinis emigrantų skaičius. Available at: http://osp.stat.gov.lt/statistiniu-rodikliu-analize?id=1296&status=A Access: 02/10/2015

LIETUVOS STATISTIKOS DEPARTAMENTAS. Nedarbo lygis, pašalinus sezono įtaką. Available at: http://osp.stat.gov.lt/statistiniu-rodikliu-analize?id=1534&status=A Access: 04/10/2015

LIETUVOS STATISTIKOS DEPARTAMENTAS. Vartotojų kainų pokyčiai. Available at: http://osp.stat.gov.lt/statistiniu-rodikliu-analize?id=2242&status=A Access: 06/10/2015

LIEW, V. K. (2004). Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ? Economics Bulletin, v. 3, n. 33, p. 1–9.

SIMANAVIČIENĖ, Ž.; KEIZERIENĖ, E. (2011) Makroekonominių veiksnių įtaka Lietuvos nekilnojamojo turto rinkos krizei. Ekonomika ir vadyba, v. 16, p. 323–329.

TAKÁTS, E. (2012) Aging and house prices. Journal Of Housing Economics, v. 21, n. 2, p. 131–141.

TUPĖNAITĖ, L.; KANAPECKIENĖ, L. (2009) Nekilnojamojo turto kainų burbulas ir jo pasekmės Baltijos šalims. Sciene – Future of Lithuania / Mokslas – Lietuvos Ateitis, v. 1, n. 5, p. 103–108.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14807/ijmp.v8i1.521

Article Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

Metrics powered by PLOS ALM

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2017 Viktorija Cohen, Lina Karpavičiūtė

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

LIBRARIES BY

Logo Gaudeamus

Logo INDIANA

Logo CHENG KUNG

Logo UTEP

Logo MOBIUS

Logo UNIVEM

Logo Kennedy

Logo Columbia

Logo UCS

Logo MSG/UFF

Logo OPT

Logo Biblioteca Professor Milton Cabral Moreira

Logo UFL

Logo ULRICHSWEB

Logo UNISA