Supply chain risk mitigation through sales forecasting in a cosmetics company

Main Article Content

Daniella Frias
Carolina Cavour Siqueira Muniz
Pedro Senna Vieira
Dominique Souza Sant’anna
Augusto da Cunha Reis
صندلی اداری


Demand forecasting has become a fundamental tool for companies' strategic planning. Represented by one of the highest growth rates in the country, the cosmetics industry faces numerous challenges in meeting the demand of consumers with a high level of service. Correctly identifying demand is critical to avoiding unnecessary extra costs for the business, such as stockout or stock over. The sales data of shampoo franchises are real values, covering the period from January 2013 to December 2018. After data organization, open-time and fixed-time time series techniques were analyzed in order to find the best forecasting technique for the type of product analyzed, i.e. the method with the smallest difference in absolute values between the actual demanded. and the estimated. The models were successfully applied, and we concluded that one of the analyzed methods could be applied in the company, because it presented smaller Mean Absolute Percentage Error.


Download data is not yet available.

Article Details



BRADLEY, J. R. (2014) An improved method for managing catastrophic supply chain disruptions. Business Horizons, v. 57, n. 4, p. 483-495.

BURGO, R. N. S. (2005) Supply Chain Management: Uma Introdução à um Modelo de Gestão da Cadeia de Suprimentos para Obtenção de Diferencial Competitivo. Revista Científica Eletrônica de Administração, v. 5, n. 9, p. 1-7

CHRISTOPHER, M.; PECK, H. (2004) Building the resilient supply chain. International Journal of Logistics Management, v. 15, p. 1-13.

CORRAR, L.; THEÓPHILO, C. (2008) Pesquisa operacional para decisão em contabilidade e administração, Ed. Atlas, São Paulo.

CORRÊA, H. L.; CORRÊA, C. A. (2010) Administração de produção e operações, Ed. Atlas, São Paulo

FELEA, M.; ALVASTROIU, I. (2013) Managing Supply Chain Risks. Journal Supply Chain Management Journal, v. 4, n. 2.

JUTTNER, U.; CHRISTOPHER, M.; BAKER, S. (2007) Demand chain management-integrating marketing and supply chain management. Industrial Marketing Management, v. 36 n. 3, p. 377-392.

KLEINDORFER, P. R.; SAAD, G. H. (2005) Managing disruption risks in supply chains. Production & Operations, v. 14, p. 53-68.

LAMBERT, D. M.; COOPER, M. C. (2000) Issues in Supply Chain Management. Industrial Marketing Management, v. 29, p. 65-83.

PADOVEZE, C. (2010) Contabilidade Gerencial: Um enfoque em sistema de informação contábil, ed. Atlas, São Paulo.

PONOMAROV, S. Y.; HOLCOMB, M. C. (2009) Understanding the concept of supply chain resilience. The International Journal of Logistics Management, v. 20, p. 124-143.

SLACK, N.; LEWIS, M. (2003) Operations Strategy, ed. Pearson Education, New Jersey.

Most read articles by the same author(s)

فروشگاه اینترنتی