Radu Bucea Manea Tonis
Hyperion University, Romania
E-mail: radub_m@yahoo.com
Cezar Braicu
Hyperion University, Romania
E-mail: cezar_braicu@hotmail.com
Submission: 12/06/2018
Revision: 12/19/2018
Accept: 1/05/2019
ABSTRACT
The
theory of organizational learning seems to be practical when researchers can
find connections between two or more variables that can be justified and
implemented. The term “intellectual capital” has appreciated over time
acquiring a growing value. Work based on sustained learning contributes to the
development of the intellectual capital not only of the employers, but also of
the universities. In the current period of “knowledge economy” and “corporate
university” development, the creation and evaluation of knowledge are
recognized as important and necessary to be included in the educational
programs. Knowledge management regards tacit and explicit knowledge. During the
theoretical training, students mainly access information in written or verbal
format, transmitted mainly on the teacher-student communication channel. During
practical activities and mutual interactions, students agree to the informal
knowledge, highly sought after by employers. In this paper, we will deal mainly
with the ways of coding the information of statistical interest, which will be
subject to a meta-level coding at the programming languages level, applicable
to the analysis of the central trend and the shape of the data series
distribution by estimating the parameters of the regression equation. According
to the analysis, it results that in the absence of some measures to stimulate
birth rate or attract foreign students, the Romanian higher education will
register a considerable decline compared to the reference period in terms of
the number of enrolled students.
Keywords: knowledge management, intellectual
capital, university environment, information
1. INTRODUCTION
The
education system of a nation occupies one of the most important places for the
development of that nation, given that it envisages the transfer of knowledge,
the development of human creativity, allowing the personal and social ascension
of individuals.
Universities
in the European space are currently under increasing pressure due to increased
competition from both new universities in Europe as well as from North American
and Asian universities and also to the increased negative demographic trends.
According
to Giannakouris (2010, p. 11-16), Europe’s population
is set to grow by 5% until 2030, with great differences between its countries
and regions. For Romania, by 2030, a population reduction of almost 1.3 million
is expected, due to a negative natural increase of -3.1‰ and a migration rate
of 0.1‰.
Increasing
the amount of intellectual capital requires two critical levers: managing its
development and providing components and programs for information technology –
the essential electronic elixir to gain more human, social and structural
capital.
Labour-based learning offers the chance to fundamentally
expand the intellectual capital of the university. Focusing on a
university-based learning program as a process of recognizing, creating and
applying knowledge through and for work rather than simply at work challenges
the position of the university as a single validator and evaluator of
high-level knowledge.
The
need to demonstrate “purpose-matching” typically not only requires cognitive
skills of traditional higher education (analysis, synthesis, evaluation), but
also requires them to be applied in a complex situation to maximize the
effectiveness of resources taking into account stakeholder expectations and
time limits.
According
to Dalkir (2005), coding is the final stage of the
information acquisition process, after the initial stage of identifying the
information source, and that of conceptualizing or understanding the
information (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: The
stages of the information acquisition process after Dalkir
Two
aspects of the coding stage are addressed by the authors: organization and
outsourcing of knowledge. The organization of explicit knowledge includes three
forms: cognitive maps, decision trees, and taxonomy.
The information we are interested
in is taxonomically structured on the INS website (www1) on seven main
categories: social, economic, finances, justice, environment, land
administration and public utilities.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
According
to Tarlea and Freyberg-Inan
(2018), in Romania, higher education is oriented towards providing low and
medium quality education, while the economy is oriented towards the production
of industrial goods and services that require small and medium skills. In
short, Romania is rooted in a low balance of abilities.
The
authors started from the premise that the political and economic implications
of the deterioration of higher education in Romania from 1989 can be better
understood by exploring the dynamics of demand and supply of higher education
and high-level skills in the Romanian economy. They argue that an imbalance of
skills has emerged in our country, where a medium-educated population produces
goods and services with low added value. This would not only be a symptom of
Romania’s status as a dependent market economy but also helps explain the
failure to overcome the quality deficiencies of the post-communist system in
Romania.
The
most likely way out of the current imbalance would be an evolution towards the
liberal model, where universities provide general skills, and workplace
preparation is done on the ground. Without an acceleration of the government’s
regulatory effort and expenditures to safeguard the quality of higher
education, there is little hope in the country’s ability to use better
qualifications as a path to greater economic competitiveness.
Zamfir (2017) confirms the results of previous studies that
highlight the persistence of educational gaps between rural and urban areas in
developing countries. On the other hand, educational poverty has a positive
overall trend. Unfortunately, younger generations account for a higher
proportion of poorly educated people, especially in rural areas.
Moreover,
the spread of new technologies (4G and 5G networks for communication, mobile
interfaces in the era of IoT -Internet of Things)
brings a new perspective for collaborative and distance learning that allows a
balanced between work and social life for modern students.
They
are keen of new technologies and IoT and come in
university to experience knowledge through modern teaching methods such as VR
(virtual reality) facilities integrated in E-learning platforms, in classrooms,
in labs, in museums or libraries etc. Knowledge is everywhere now: on internet,
in libraries, in schools, but is very difficult to access it, because the
students must be initiated in the access of enormous data-warehouses and bigdata technologies.
Here
comes knowledge management system that has to be offered by universities to
students. These systems have to offer dynamic, interactivity, 3D visualization,
Virtual reality experience as to improve education and knowledge acquisition
having fun in the same time (NAZIM, 2016; SHUJAHAT, 2019; HERNÁNDEZ-LÓPEZ, 2016;
PETROVA, 2015; ȚONIȘ, 2018a).
Knowledge
management refers to design a model of innovation that facilitates the link
between academia and the business environment is described in. The academies
have to be a member of a business environment network (BEN), in which
corporations and state institutions may invest in a performing open innovation
platform and in licenses. In this
ecosystem, students can come out with innovation in different fields. The
innovation will be validated by an ecological agency as to be in accordance
with circular economy principles.
This
environment has to integrate a market agency to test the innovation on the
market. The feasibility of the idea has to be tested by a consultant
(financial) agency, that has to be part of the environment. Should all the
tests finish with success, the inventors within the network and the academic
researchers can come up with possible implementation solutions (XU, 2019; TONIS,
2018B; LINA, 2012).
Modern
knowledge management system has to use AI technologies that are integrated in
machine learning based on neural networks to image recognition based on
hundreds of raw pictures of the given target to extract the most appropriated
knowledge that the student is searching for. Thus, modern knowledge management
system integrates deep learning and predictive analytics as machine learning
methods. They also integrate translation, classification & clustering, and
information extractions as method of natural language processing (NLP). They
also integrate speech, robotics and vision (image recognition and machine
vision) as modern methods of AI (SAĞSAN, 2016; BRAICU, 2018).
Romania
faces a phenomenon of human capital polarization. This means that, in the
post-communist period, Romania recorded a simultaneous increase in the share of
people with higher education and an increase in the share of people with lower
secondary education. Moreover, the educational level according to the residence
environment indicates that this polarization tends to increase the gap between
an educated urban area and a poorly educated rural area.
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1.
The
purpose and objectives of the research
This
paper aims to identify the factors influencing the qualitative and quantitative
indicators of higher education in Romania, and how they varied between 2013 and
2016. The desire was to determine the medium-term tendencies in terms of youth
employment in higher education, the share of students by specialization groups
in the public and private environments and the average increase in residence
environments, given the effective decrease in the number of pupils in high
school education [www2].
The
objective of the current research is to highlight the influence of knowledge
management on the intellectual capital of the Romanian university environment.
In this sense, a theoretical research was carried out in two stages:
1)
the study of specialized literature in the field,
accessing articles and books from international databases.
2)
establishing the topic to be analyzed statistically,
as a result of the previous stage: the evolution of the Romanian education and
the determinants of this evolution:
a)
choosing the variables to be entered in a statistical
model: POP214A, SCL102A, SCL103L. The variable were choses in accordance with
the anterior review section.
b)
collection of data from the Social Statistics category
from the INS database regarding the variables previously established for the
period 2013-2016
c)
choosing and implementing the statistical model
d)
interpreting the results and formulating the
conclusions.
3.2.
Methodology
and aspects of the data analysed
The
research presented in the paper is an office research based on the statistical
analysis of the social statistics category of the INS database, the
subcategories:
·
POP214A – Natural population growth by residence area,
macro-regions, development regions and counties;
·
SCL102A – Degree enrolment in education of the school
age population, by sex;
·
SCL103L – Undergraduates and students enrolled in
higher education, by groups of specializations.
In
the research, we have taken into account the factors that lead to the failure
of knowledge management (FROST, 2014), among which we mention:
·
Lack of performance indicators and metrics associated
with the objectives pursued;
·
Lack of relevance, quality and adequacy of
information;
·
Poor methodology and inappropriate use of statistical
and IT tools.
The gthnk free
system for knowledge management is the main way of retaining and transferring
knowledge from the perspective of the General Knowledge Model (NEWMAN; CONRAD, 1999).
The results of our research will be stored in this system in the form of
text-based notes. In addition, it also provides long-term chronological storage
of handwritten knowledge, notes on mobile devices and attached pictures, see
Figure 2.
Figure 2: The gthnk system
implemented in Python
Source: www6
According
to Sandor (2013), the longitudinal research strategy, comprising at least two
measuring intervals, allows us to study the evolution of social phenomena over
time and even to identify a model to explain this evolution. In addition, in
conducting case studies on mass phenomena, the aim is to compare the results
obtained on different groups, e.g. population categories.
It
can be seen in Figure 3 that natural growth followed a sharp decline between
2013 and 2015, especially in the rural area (from -3.5 to -5), followed by an
overall stabilization (rural + urban) after 2015 (-4.4 in 2016). We consider
that the trend of decreasing the number of rural populations through emigration
was reversed by population migration from the city to the village amid the deindustrialization
and aging of the urban population.
The
percentage of population’s education followed a downward trend amid negative
natural growth and increase of school dropout (see Figure 4), Romania ranking
third in the European Union in number of school dropouts. Malta ranks first
(19.6%), followed by Spain (19%) and Romania (18.5%), according to www3. Virtually,
two out of ten students end up dropping out of school, most of them coming from
the countryside and from poor families. In fact, Romania is one of the few
countries where school dropout has increased in the last decade, from 17.9% in
2006 to 18.5% in 2016, according to (MIHAI, 2018).
Figure 3: Natural population growth
by residence area
Source: own processing data from
www4
Figure 4: Degree of enrolment in
school by age population
Source: own processing data from
www4
The
situation of the students enrolled in higher education changed slightly between
2013 and 2016, the highest share having the full-time attendance education –
92%, followed by the distance learning – 5% and the evening classes – 3%, as it
follows al the level of 2016, see Figure 5:
Figure 5: Share of students enrolled
in higher education by types of education
Source: processing after
statistical information obtained from www4
In
private higher education, there has been a tendency to decrease the number of
students enrolled in the 2013-2016 interval (from about 66,000 students to
56,402 students in full time attendance education), see figure 6. Possible
causes could be the supplementation of budget and tax places, as well as the
elimination of the admission exam at the state universities.
The
analysis of the evolution of the number of students in private and state higher
education by specializations groups during the period 2013-2016 reveals the
maintenance of a decreasing trend over the researched interval. Higher public
economic education recorded the largest decrease in the interval taken into
account, with 34% in 2016 compared to the reference year (2013), see Figure 7.
An
upward trend has been recorded in the education sector, with an increase of
18.5% in 2016 compared to 2013. An explanation could be the awareness of the
importance of the teaching activity among young high school graduates, amid the
gradual increase of the funds allocated from the public budget to this key
sector for the economic development. The constant maintenance of the demand for
jobs in the tertiary sector led to the preservation of the number of students
enrolled in this specializations group at an average level of approx. 6,700
students per year on the surveyed interval.
Figure 6: Students enrolled in
private higher education
Source: processing after
statistical information obtained from www4
Figure 7: Analysis of the evolution
of the number of students in public higher education
Source: processing after
statistical information obtained from www4
As
regards the students on specialization groups, we observe a high share of
engineering and economic sciences in specializations total (19% and 26%
respectively in 2016), with a more pronounced tendency to reduce the number of
students enrolled in economic sciences in 2014-2015 interval (from 39,625
students to 34,572 students). At the level of 2016, the share of students
enrolled on specializations groups was as follows (see figure 8):
Figure 8: Share of students from
public universities on specializations groups in 2016
Source: processing after
statistical information obtained from www4
An
interesting trend is found in students enrolled in the private sector, where
the declining trend for the 2013-2016 period is reversed in the health
specialization group (from 747 students in 2014 to 1,244 students in 2015). An
explanation could be the increased need for doctors in West European hospitals.
The
rest of the decreasing trend is manifested in all other specialization groups,
including services and education. This trend is explained also by students’
migration or the orientation of high school graduates from private higher
education to the public, amid the gradual adaptation of the curriculum to the
needs of the labor market and the supplementation of the budget and tax places
in state universities, see figure 9.
Figure 9: Analysis of the evolution
of the number of students in private higher education
Source: processing after statistical
information obtained from www4
The
share of economic sciences in the total private university specializations as
number of enrolled students is significantly higher than in the public system
in 2016 (64% vs. 28%), as shown in Figure 10:
Figure 10: Share of students enrolled
in the private sector on specializations groups in 2016
Source: processing after
statistical information obtained from www4
For
a more in-depth analysis of the school population data series, we chose the
pandas tool (www5) for Python. Pandas is an Open Source software library
released under the BSD license for data manipulation and analysis. It provides
data structures and algorithms for manipulating numerical data and time series.
The name is derived from “Panel Data,” an econometric term for data sets that
include both time series and cross-sectional data.
We
performed a simple data series analysis using the descrip() method applied to the df objectframe or
data source. This step generates descriptive statistics summarizing the central
trend, dispersion and form of distribution of a data set, excluding non-numeric
values. The following script was implemented, resulting the table from figure
11:
import
pandas as pd
(...)
df = pd.read_csv('/home/linuxlite/Desktop/sursa2.csv')
textview.get_buffer().insert_at_cursor(df.describe().to_string()) (1)
Figure 11: Result of applying the
describe() method to the data series
Source: report resulted by running
the script above
For
a complex analysis, we used pandas implementation of the smallest squares
method (OLS) in estimating the regression equation parameters using the
formula:
ols ('dependency variable ~
independent variable', dataframe) (2)
The
source code is:
import pandas as pd
import statsmodels.api
as sm
from statsmodels.formula.api
import ols
(...)
df = pd.read_csv('/home/linuxlite/Desktop/sursa2.csv')
m = ols('An
~ Procent',df).fit()
print m.summary()
(3)
and following the execution of the
above script it results the following synthetic report generated in the
development console or in the terminal, see Figure 12:
Figure 12: Estimation of regression
coefficients
Own source: report resulted by
running the script above
3.3.
Research
results
The
determination coefficient R2 of this model is 0.957. This indicates that 96% of
the dependent variable are determined by the variation of the independent
variable and only 4% of this influence cannot be explained using the model.
Because R2 takes values closer to 1, the regression model better adjusts the
data in the sample. In this case, the value of 0.957 demonstrates the validity
of the model (Figure 10), which proves that the influence of the independent
variable is significant to explain the variance of the dependent variable.
Since
the adjusted R2 value is close to the R2 value, this allows the extension of
the proposed regression model for the entire population. In this case, the
variance of the dependent variable decreases with the difference between the
two coefficients (0.957-0.943 = 0.034). It is noticeable that this difference
is very low, below 1%.
The
simplest test to highlight the self-correction error is Durbin-Watson. In this
case, the value D_W is 1.88, roughly included in the [2, 4] interval. The
conclusion is that there is no self-correction between errors.
The
Akaike Criterion (AIC) is often used in selecting the
model for different alternatives. Smaller AIC values are preferred. AIC is
5.92, having hence a low value.
The
F test for each variable validates the model and contributes to the predictive
power of the regression model. The significance threshold of the variables
should be less than 0.05. In our case, it is 0.00383, less than 0.05 after the
F statistical test.
The
coefficient of the dependent variable has an estimated value of -0.1452, with a
probability of guaranteeing the (probable) results of 0.004 (lower than the
sensitivity threshold of 0.05), so is validated the good estimation of this
coefficient.
Based
on the data series, the following graph is generated using the free pyGUI tool at
https://github.com/radubm1/pyGUI/, over which we have overlapped the graph of
the estimated trend equation, see Figure 13:
Figure 13: School enrolment rate of
the school age population, real (blue) and estimated (red)
Source: processing after
statistical information obtained from www1
Analyzing
the data regarding the school enrolment of the school age population it results
a more pronounced decrease of the percentage after 2015, a fact which should
determine the institutional actors involved to take the necessary measures to
reduce the dropout rate.
4. CONCLUSIONS
The
research carried out confirms the stated supposition, namely the decrease of
the number of high school graduates and thus the number of young people
enrolled in accredited state and private university education.
The analysis of
the data showed that the share of students enrolled in state education, from
the total number of students, is ~86%, and from the point of view of the
attractiveness of the specializations, the first place in held, both in public
and private education, by the economic specializations with a share of ~82%
(public) and ~62% (private) from the specializations total, even if the actual
number of students in these specializations has decreased in the last years.
At
the same time, attractiveness for the specialization medicine has seen a
growing trend over the period under review, although the actual number of young
people enrolled in higher education –cycle I, license- has decreased (from
433234 in 2013 to 405638 in 2016).
Based
on the trend equation calculated in the paper, it can be noticed that the
number of young people enrolled in higher education in 2030 will be
insignificant, if the negative demographic growth and the emigration will not
be counteracted by immediate measures to increase birth rates, increase the
attractiveness of the Romanian economy by creating new highly qualified jobs,
attracting foreign students from less developed countries and, last but not
least, running European Lifelong Learning programs and cooperation in the field
of strategic partnerships in higher education.
Thus,
achieving some stable strategies and policies, coherent in the field of
university education, should be the key objective in the near future for all
involved decision makers.
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