JUSTIFICATION OF
MODELS OF CHANGING PROJECT ENVIRONMENT FOR HARVESTING GRAIN, OILSEED AND LEGUME
CROPS
Anatolii Тryhuba
Lviv National Agrarian University, Ukraine
E-mail: atryguba55@gmail.com
Oleh Bashynskyi
Lviv National Agrarian University, Ukraine
E-mail: olegboi0202@gmail.com
Yevhen Medvediev
Volodymyr Dahl East Ukrainian National University,
Ukraine
E-mail: medvedev.ep@gmail.com
Serhii Slobodian
State Agrarian and Engineering University in Podilya, Ukraine
E-mail: sergessb75@gmail.com
Dmytro Skorobogatov
State Agrarian and Engineering University in Podilya, Ukraine
E-mail: dskorobogatov@i.ua
Submission: 30/11/2018
Revision: 14/12/2018
Accept: 05/01/2019
ABSTRACT
An analysis of the
condition of implementation of projects in agricultural production is carried
out. The disadvantages of existing methods and models of planning of the
content and time of execution of works in the projects, which mostly do not
take into account the changing components of their project environment, are
substantiated. The proposed methodology for justifying the models of a changing
project environment for harvesting grain, oilseed and legume crops is based on
the analysis of official statistics of agrometeorological stations and involves
the implementation of production experiments, which makes it possible to
increase the accuracy of the results. It has been established that the dewy
periods of time in the projects for the collection of early oilseeds, cereals
and legumes are characterized by a probabilistic distribution of the time of
occurrence of dew and its duration. The indicated regularity and the
established correlation relationship between the occurrence of dew and its
duration are the main components of the model. The substantiated model of the
pink period of time allows to take into account the changing events of the
project environment and to improve the quality of the content management
process and the time of performance of the harvesting work.
It is established that the deficit of humidity
in the air, in which the performance of harvesting is effective, changes over
the course of the day by parabolic dependence. Its maximum value depends on the
agrometeorologically acceptable duration of the works in the projects of
harvesting early oilseeds, grain and legume crops, which is the basis for
substantiating the model of the air humidity deficit and taking into account
its impact on the implementation of works in these projects. The obtained
results of the research are the basis of development of simulation models of
projects for the collection of early oilseeds, grain and legume crops to
improve the accuracy of determining the use indicators and resource
requirements for the implementation of these projects. The obtained models
increase the quality of management decision making in the projects of
harvesting early oilseeds, grain and legume crops.
Keywords: model, project environment,
project, harvesting, grain crops
1. INTRODUCTION
Currently,
in
A
number of projects should be implemented to efficiently centralize the
collection of early grain crops. These projects can be divided into strategic
ones related to the formation of a combine park, and tactical ones, which are
aimed at increasing the efficiency of the use of the existing combine park.
During the implementation of these projects a number of tasks arise, the
solution of which requires the development of appropriate scientific and methodological
principles (SILVEIRA, et al., 2018).
One of the tasks of tactical
projects for centralized harvesting of early grain crops is to manage their
content and time (SYDORCHUK, et al., 2012). This
task is relevant both in scientific and in practical terms. At the same time,
the variable design environment is important for reconciling the content and
the time of the performed work. Its variability is due to the stochastic effect
of natural and climatic conditions, on the territory where projects for the
collection of early oilseeds, cereals and legumes are implemented.
In
order to take into account, the changing impact of the project environment on
the content and timing of projects for the collection of early oilseeds, grain
and legume crops, scientific and methodological principles of their research
should be developed and the models of natural and climatic conditions for a
given territory should be substantiated.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
Managing
the content and timing of projects is one of the main areas of knowledge of
project management. A number of standards have been developed to manage these
processes, in particular PMI, PMBOK (BUSHEW, 2009). In
addition, a number of scientific works related to the improvement of the
content management methodology and the implementation time of projects have
been carried out (BUSHEW, 2000; CLELAND; IRELAND, 2007; FRAME, 1994; KERZNER, 2003).
The analysis of the current
scientific and methodological principles of content management and time in the
projects indicates that they did not consider causal relationships between work
and events with probable time of occurrence, which makes it impossible to
unambiguously define the hierarchical structure of these works, as well as to
construct a grid graph of their implementation (ANDRADE,
2009; HEIZER; RENDER, 1996).
Known works (SYDORCHUK,
et al., 2011; TRYHUBA, et al., 2018), which substantiated the expediency of
forecasting the changing components of the project environment. However, these
works relate to various subject areas of the projects (ROMANO,
2003), which does not take into account the specificity of projects for the
collection of early oilseeds, cereals and legumes.
It should also be noted that
current methods and patterns of content management and time do not take into
account the specifics of early oilseed, grain and legume harvesting projects
(LERMEN, et al., 2016). In particular, they do not take into account the
changing natural and climatic conditions for a given territory, where projects
for the collection of early oilseeds, cereals and legumes are implemented. Consequently,
the justification of the models of a changing project environment for
harvesting grain, oilseed and legume crops is very relevant both in scientific
and in practical terms.
The purpose of the
article is to substantiate the models and to establish the
regularities of changing the variable project environment of grain, oilseed and
legume crops harvesting projects.
3. METHODOLOGY
The project environment, as already
mentioned, in projects for the collection of early cereals, oilseeds and
legumes is divided into components - agrometeorological, substantive and
production. The agrometeorological component of the design environment
determines the events in the spaces that characterize the possibility of
performing harvesting in the fields.
The events of the
agrometeorological component are at the same time derived from the first events
of the first kind, characterized by the appearance of the crop in separate
fields, as well as the basic events regarding the possibility of performing
harvesting projects. In other words, in the absence of a crop in certain
fields, agrometeorological conditions are of no interest to project managers,
because the collection work in this case is not fulfilled.
Only after the onset of the stage
of harvesting in one or another field in the harvesting of early crops is a
need to consider the agrometeorological component of the project environment.
This circumstance is fundamental to the development of a project and modeling the
performance of harvesting in it.
The agrometeorological component of
the design environment characterizes alternately formed time intervals with
weathered and mild conditions.
Predominant conditions are called
agrometeorological conditions; in which it is possible to assemble early crops.
This is a lack of weather, which during the harvest season is characterized by
the number and duration of the corresponding intervals of time. Between
moderate intervals, there are periods of rainy weather. Thus, the duration of
the implementation of the harvesting project is characterized by a sequence of
sweeping and tumultuous intervals of time (TRYHUBA, et al.,
2012).
To manage the work in early
cropping projects, this sequence is one of the main reasons for ensuring the
adequacy of their modeling, which is carried out in this work to determine the
number of fields that are awaiting collection each day and in a certain way
characterize the situational program of projects (AMORIM, et al., 2017). The
simulation of combine harvesting during the harvest season of individual
projects is carried out on the basis of known information (TRYHUBA;
SHOLUDKO; 2011; PIERRE; ROBILLARD; ROBILLARD, 2000),
but because of this, the model of weathered and non-seasonal time intervals in
the project environment system is not considered here.
The air humidity deficit in
harvesting early oilseeds, grain and legume crops significantly affects the
productivity of combine harvesters in the seasonal program fields, and
therefore - at the time of execution of the relevant work, which should be
taken into account in the process of managing the content and time of projects.
The change in productivity is conditioned by the fact that the speed of combine
harvesters in the formation is determined by the moisture content of the
grain-stem mass.
An increasing air humidity deficit,
the moisture content of the grain stem mass decreases, which is the reason for
the increase in the speed of combine harvesting in the field. causes an
increase in the moisture content of the grain stem mass and, as a consequence,
a decrease in the speed of the combine. In view of this, the failure to take
into account the design of the early crop harvesting project, the effect of the
humidity deficit on the pace of agony impossible to work towards its adequacy
to real projects that can lead to erroneous management decisions.
In order to reflect the effect of
the humidity deficit on the model of the project on its course, first of all,
research was carried out on its daily changes.
The empirical basis for such
researches was the data of the Yavoriv Agrometeorological Station of Lviv
Oblast, collected over the past 35 years in relation to changes in air humidity
deficiencies every 3 hours during the harvesting of early crops (from July 1 to
August 15). The methodical feature of processing statistics on the change in
the air humidity deficit during certain harvesting seasons was that only a part
of the information on the change in this indicator was taken into account which
was related to exceeding its value by more than 4 hPa. Such a choice was due to
the fact that the collection of these early crops can be effectively carried
out only under such agrometeorological conditions. Otherwise, grain (seed) is
obtained at excessively high humidity, as well as deterioration of its
threshing machine, which leads to the loss of the cultivated yield (SYDORCHUK;
TRYHUBA; PANIURA; et al., 2010).
The graphic analysis of the change
in the air humidity deficit has made it possible to assert that during the
light days the value of the recorded data exceeds 4 hPa for a certain period of
time, which has its beginning and end on the daily axis of time. In the
conditions of the Small Polesie of the Lviv region, the air humidity shortage
exceeds 4 hPa once a day. The terms of the transition of the air humidity
deficit through the marking 4 hPa mostly coincide with the terms of the
appearance and drying of dew (in some cases, the difference does not exceed 0.5
h), which became the reason to assume in the model the terms of appearance and
debris expiration of the transition of the air humidity deficit through the
mark 4 hPa.
A
number of projects are implemented in agrarian production and they are
integrated with each other. In particular, such integrated projects include
those relating to the cultivation of crops and the central harvesting. To
implement such projects, management processes are carried out, which include
initialization and closure, planning, execution and control. During the
management of integrated harvesting projects, the special processes are carried
out. Appropriate tools were developed for their implementation (methods,
models, techniques).
They
should take into account technological interconnections between products and
the probable behavior of the project environment. The structure of the
processes of content management and the time of execution of works in the
projects harvesting of cereals, oilseeds and legumes is determined by the
functions they are predetermine. As a result, all processes of managing the
content and time of projects for harvesting grain, oilseed and legume crops are
classified by us according to two classification features: 1) for validity; 2)
for affiliation to the project components. Process management of harvesting cereals,
oilseeds and legumes are divided into basic and secondary by validity. The main
processes are those that are regulated in relation to content management and
time of project execution. These include processes identification of components
of the design environment and justification of their models.
4. ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
4.1.
Results
of the substantiation of the model of the dewy intervals of time in the system
of the project environment
An important component of agrometeorological
conditions that is taken into account when managing harvesting operations in
early oilseed, grain, and legume harvesting projects are the pinkish periods of
time, which mostly occur in the evening hours of the calendar day. For the
development of the model of this component in the system of events of the
project environment, the time of occurrence and completion
of dew of each day of
the prevailing intervals of time is investigated.
These data are recorded by
agrometeorological stations. In fact, in each study, data from the Yavoriv
Agrometeorological Station in the Lviv region was used. Data from the official
documents (ТСХ-1 and KM-1 form) from this station for the years 1980-2015 on
the beginning of the appearance and duration of the pseudoscale periods during
the harvesting of early crops (from July 1 to August 15) became the source
information for the development of the model these gaps in the project
environment.
On the basis of processing by methods of mathematical
statistics according to the well-known method (TRYHUBA, et al.,
2018) data on the onset of dew, the
distribution of this time on the daily axis of time is constructed and its
statistical characteristics are determined. As a result, they obtained and
found that the empirical distribution of the time of occurrence of dew is
described by the Weibull law (Graph 1), whose density function is written by
the equation:
. (1)
Note
that for this distribution, there are the following statistical
characteristics: 1) estimation of the mathematical expectation - 19,90 h; 2)
the estimate of the mean square deviation is 1,466 h; 3) estimating the scale
parameter - a = 2,064; evaluation of the form parameter - b = 1,315.
Investigating the duration of this interval, we found
that it is a probabilistic value. At the same time, an average correlation
between the beginning of dew (tпр)
and its duration (Δtp) was
found (Graph 2). The presence of this connection has a physical
explanation - given the fact that every mild day with the onset of the morning
and the rise of the sun over the horizon is the dew evaporation, then the time
interval from this moment to the time of the dew will be more than dew earlier.
The regression line in this case is
written by the equation:
Δtp = -0,781 tпр + 27,34. (2)
Graph 1: Histogram and theoretical curve of the time dew
occurrence
Source:
the authors (2018)
Graph 2: Correlation dependence of the duration of the
dewy interval from the time of dew emergence
Source:
the authors (2018)
In order to take into account in
the model of the pendulous intervals of instability time Δtp of the regression line for fixed values (tпр), the deviation study (Δtp) was performed from its
mean value. As a result, it was found that these deviations are described by
the normal distribution law with the following basic statistical characteristics:
1) an estimate of mathematical expectation - 0.019 h; 2) the estimation of the
mean square deviation is 1,191 hours.
Thus, the model of the pink period
of time in the system of events in the design environment is reflected by the
time distribution of dew on the daily axis of time and the duration of the
corresponding interval, which is determined by the mean value, which correlates
with the time of dew appearance.
4.2.
Results
of the justification of the model of air humidity deficit
The graphoanalytic study of the
change in the air humidity deficit was performed to justify the model of the
corresponding dependence. The methodological feature of this study was that the
statistical data on the change of this component of the project environment
were grouped according to the criterion of the daily duration of the excess
value of the deficit of air humidity 4 hPa. The data of changes in the air
humidity deficit were analyzed for such intervals of the duration of the change
in humidity deficit: 1) 6-10; 2) 10 - 14; 3) 14-18; 4) 18 - 22.
The statistical processing of these data made it
possible to establish that the corresponding dependence is described by a
parabola, the characteristics of which vary from the admissible nature of the
duration (tд) of the effective performance of
harvesting during certain days (Graph 3).
One of the most important
characteristics of the parabolic dependence of the air humidity deficit on the
agrometeorologically permissible daily runtime efficiency of the harvesting
operations is the maximum value of the humidity deficit (Dmax). The processing of the collected statistical data
on these indicators made it possible to establish the correlation dependence of
the maximum value of the air humidity deficit (Dmax) from the agro allowed during the day of the
duration (tl) of the
effective execution of the cutting operations:
. (3)
The presence of this dependence, as
well as the parabolic dependence of the air humidity deficit on agro-permeable
during the days of the duration of the harvesting operations in the relevant
projects, is the main reason for justifying the model of the air humidity
deficit in the design environment. Such a model, obviously, should be a
parabolic dependence of the change in air humidity deficit during the
agro-permissible daily runtime of harvesting operations.
Let us assume that the initial
value of this dependence coincides with the moment of the completion of dew in
the early times. It is 4 hPa. The final value of this dependence coincides with
the moment of dew decline in the afternoon and equals 4 hPa. The maximum value
of the air humidity deficit depends on the agro-approved during the day of the
duration of the harvesting operations. To this end, we take the idealization
that Dmax is detected in the middle of an agro-permissible daily time interval
(td). Its value is determined from equation (3).
Thus, to show the dependence of the
air humidity deficit (D) on the
agrotechnical tolerance (tд),
the equation is used:
D=a tд2+b tд+c, (4)
where a, b, c
– parameters of parabola.
а)
c) b)
Graph
3: Empirical and theoretical dependence of the change in air humidity deficit
on the agro-approved duration of harvesting operations: а) tд=6-10 h; b) tд =14-18 h; c) tд =18-22 h
Source:
the authors, 2018
Their numerical values are
determined on the basis of solving the system of equations:
(5)
where n is the
number of known values tдi
and Di respectively.
From this system of equations, we
find:
; (6)
. (7)
For our case we have C = 4; n =
Thus, for each value td, which is
determined by the completion and deflection (occurrence) of the dew of a given
period, is determined by the formula (3) Dmax,
and the parameters of the parabola calculated by formulas (4) reflect the
change in the time of the air humidity deficit.
5. CONCLUSION
The proposed methodology for
justifying the models of a changing design environment is based on the analysis
of official statistics of agrometeorological stations belonging to the
territory of the implementation of harvesting projects for grain, oilseed and
legume crops and involves the implementation of production experiments.
The pomaceous periods in the
harvesting of early oilseeds, cereals and legumes are characterized by the
probabilistic distribution of the time of dew emergence and its duration. This
regularity and the established correlation relationship between the occurrence
of dew and its duration are the main components of the corresponding model,
which allows them to take into account these events in the process of content
management and the timing of harvesting operations.
The air humidity deficit, in which
the performance of harvesting is effective, changes over the course of the day
with a parabolic dependence, the maximum value of which depends on the
agro-approved duration of these works, which is the basis for justifying the
model of the air humidity deficit and taking into account its impact on the
work in the relevant projects.
The obtained results of the
research are the basis of the development of simulation models of projects for
the collection of early oilseeds, grain and legume crops to determine the use
indicators and resource requirements for the implementation of these projects.
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