Douglas
Filenga
Instituto
Fderal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia de São Paulo, Campus Suzano, Brazil
E-mail: filenga@ifsp.edu.br
Submission: 3/20/2020
Accept: 3/25/2020
ABSTRACT
Regional
economic data provide myriad possibilities for pursuing projects related to
economic growth and development. Specifically, the Economic Observatory
consists of the process of elaboration, capture, analysis and distribution of
information related to the profile of (dis) employment of labor. From these
stages, the production of studies in the form of scientific works and media dissemination,
will aim to stimulate the approach of research institutions and the market
formed by people who exercise physical and legal activities in the development
and practices of actions that allow a better elaboration in resource
allocation, either part of government or private enterprise. The procedures
started consist of a validation process of the data collection instrument by
specialists, pretesting and initial analysis of the applied database. This is a
quantitative study, whose database will consist of minimum quantities of 100
used. Larger studies consider clustering as multiple minimum quantities into a
large database and proceeding as cross-sectional analyzes of the thirty-seven
investigated variables. The expected result is the creation and development of
several research groups, as well as generating information on the topic for
those interested.
1.
INTRODUCTION
Information
management can be understood from three phases, in this case, main ones;
capture, analysis and dissemination. Each of these phases obeys specific
procedures so that both a process and the respective reliable results are
considered. Also, such care allows the study to be replicated in different
regions and times for comparative purposes or to build a new, independent
database. This is the characteristic that, among others, distinguishes
scientific studies from popular polls.
The
creation of research proposals has precedents in the review of the national
literature and can be observed in studies such as those developed by Scarpin et
al. (2013) by the Universidade de Santa Catarina, by the Institute of Applied
Economic Research (IPEA), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)
and, even, in the international territory as work developed by the Revista de
Economia Mundial, subordinated to the World Economy Society, located in Spain,
among many other research centers with the same purpose distributed around the
world.
Specifically,
the Alto do Tietê Region, like many other regions, lacks longitudinal studies
that allow a better reach of public or private actions. Knowing the profile, in
other words, demographic data of the worker and analyzing such data to cross
the variables investigated allows generating information regarding aspects of
the employee's activity sector with a formal contract or what was that sector,
in case unemployment. Also, identify if there is any generation of informal
income, indebtedness or credit restriction, among other aspects.
Preliminarily,
studies have peripherally investigated the region and demonstrated both
weaknesses and even opportunities and diagnoses. It is, for example, what can
be seen in the studies by Ribeiro et al. (2012) and Campos (2012).
2.
LITERATURE REVIEW
There is a vast
literature available about Economics and its various ramifications, with
emphasis on Economic Observatories. In part, it can be explained by the fact
that Economics is a Social Science and Economic Observatory is the application
of this theory, making up what has been called Applied Social Sciences or more
specifically, Applied Economic Research, as is the focus of this study.
However, despite the
work quantity, quality and breadth that come together in the effort to produce
knowledge about the social condition, political and ideological biases can
interfere in the process of capturing, analyzing and disseminating the results
obtained. In this regard, this project aims to provide one more possibility of
contributing to the analysis with its own methodology and without any bias,
given that the database under construction can be accessed by several
researchers who may be part of the work team and who are under this same
perspective. In short, it is not a matter of seeking information to justify
practices, but seeking data that support practices. To guide the adequacy of
actions, for example, public policies or organizational planning.
Angel and Rodriguez
(2010) provide us an example of the range that the Economic Observatory can
deal with. For them, the Economic Observatory can verify different
organizational models, since each one is capable of producing economic impacts
and, therefore, can be measured in terms of productivity, importance, and
ability to mobilize financial resources. For them, the sport consists of an
organizational model that very well figures as an object of study for many
researchers. In this case, his study analyzed the economic aspects of the
financial situation of professional football in Spain. They detail that several
indexes are already used to mention and classify the teams, but even so, the
Economic Observatory is important because it includes different variables that
allow the crossing of data and a more adequate information management, as is
intended in this proposed study.
A significant
reflection on the role and importance of the Economic Observatory, in
association with other indexes and analyzes of applied economic research, shows
us that there is room for more and, mainly, new analysis methodologies. In this
proposal, not only the results will be of great validity for several interested
organizational agents, but the process (methodology), in itself, constitutes a
great contribution, as it considers the participation of already trained and
experienced researchers and new researchers represented by students and
teachers without this investigative bias.
In this regard, the
Economic Observatory of Mexico discusses the transition from the old to the new
business model, as explained by Moy (2019). For her, several voices, including
her own, make analyzes of the Mexican economic performance that happened after
government measures and the end of another period. “Diversas voces, entre ellas
la mía, se alzaron para evidenciar los problemas de toda índole”. Again, it is
perceived that several indexes and research bodies can associate to investigate
the same aspect under different methodologies and research bodies.
Another relevant
Economic Observatory and its contribution to the already available index and
bodies of applied economic research can be found in Colombia. Thus, in this
literature review, there is a record of a South American country that has this
organizational model. Mora and Santacruz (2007), analyzed the pairing between
vacant vacancies and vacancies for the city of Cali. His analysis originated
from data displayed on a panel. This methodology, it is noted, is a standard,
but not a methodological obligation for study centers. In this proposal, the
construction of a database will provide presentations, including a panel to
expose its results and information generated.
Mora and Santacruz
(2007) longitudinally discuss their analyzes, having started collecting data
from 1994 until 2000, as intended in this study, that is, accumulating data
over the years and establishing associations between the variables
investigated. For them, secondary data represents the source of information,
for this proposal, primary data will be targeted, obtained from the methodology
previously described.
Still touching the
importance and contribution of the various Economic Observatories around the
world, in different countries, but always focusing on specific regions, In
Spain, in Oviedo, the far north of the country, Del Corral (2009) investigates
how the sport is influenced by uncertainty, sex, and legislation. For them, the
study of variables can explain the performance in competitive matches in the
tennis modality in a Grand-Slam tournament.
Once again, one can see
the width and diverse applications of the economic observatories, in addition
to their regionality, as presented in this proposal to investigate the Alto do
Tietê Region. For Del Corral (2009), it was considered to investigate whether
it was the increase of players classified in the Grand Slam tournaments from 16
to 32 in 2001 led to a decrease in the competitive balance. These are regional
and focused studies of this type that can provide opportunities for the
emergence and increase of economic and social activities with a view to
economic development.
Finally, another
contribution from an Economic Observatory comes from Richars and Marques
(2016), also from Spain. For them, it is vital to analyze the bidding process
for major sporting events, as is the case in Holland, the European capital of
culture. In this study, Richards and Marques (2016), focus on social
consequences, such as cohesion, for example. They defend the importance of the
cooperation of several actors involved in the process and not just
organizational agents, that is, the participation of civil society.
Regarding this, the
proposal presented here intends to engage, albeit subtly, the federal research
institution of the Alto do Tietê Region, the city halls and the civil society
to build and disseminate the results obtained to generate better, more updated
and precise information profile of (un) employment in the region. With this,
companies and other organizations are expected to find enough material to
promote the region's growth and development.
The literature review
revealed the importance, developments, regionality and the contribution of
Economic Observatories from some places in the world, but it did not exhaust
the many possibilities. The review was limited to specific points to
demonstrate that there is no overlap in terms of the variables investigated or
the methodology adopted. Thus, many other examples can be considered in the
Brazilian case, such as the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) and
the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), among many others.
Even so, as demonstrated, there is space and possibilities for new research
alternatives, such as this proposal that focuses on two main aspects, the
methodology itself and the crossing of variables exclusively considered for
this study and region.
3.
RESEACH METHODOLOGY
The
research proposal on the (un) employment profile in the Alto do Tietê Region is
to be a quantitative study. Quantitative studies differ from qualitative
studies, among other aspects, in that they have the nature of containing a
larger number of respondents. In this case, specifically, it is a proposal to
build a database that, every semester, is supposed to increase the number of
respondents in a thousand individuals. Thus, throughout the semesters and even
in subsequent years, the database is expanded and classified according to the
time of its filling in order to allow that several analyzes via a crossing of
the data are carried out, taking into account how the sample was carried this
determined cut of research.
Acknowledging
that the population is the total of residents of the researched region, this
database is expected to be a representation, that is, a sample by which
inference can be made to the whole, however, as a non-probabilistic sample is
intended, this projection for the population as a whole must be made with
restriction, that is, there is a limitation of inferences, but high reliability
in statistical rigor, as the method is considered valid.
For
data analysis, when grouping the samples, we aim to make use of the Structural
Equations technique with Partial Least Square (MEEPLS), according to the
SmartPLS 2.0 program, since the algorithm of this procedure is less demanding
in multicollinearity assumptions and multivariate normality. This technique,
according to Hair et al. (2005), considers adequacy to the model proposed in
this investigation, as there are sufficient quantity and variety of the
investigated variables.
The
advantage of this technique concerning the Multiple Regression Analysis of the
SPSS is that it allows the concomitant analysis of the relationships (paths)
between the variables. Path analysis programs “Path Weighting Scheme” were
adopted, since the results of PLS are comparable to those of
other statistical techniques (TENENHAUS et al., 2005, p. 203). Considering that
when measurable variables have a small number of indicators, as is the case,
the PLS-PM program is more appropriate (CHIN; NEWSTED, 1999, p. 333).
In
addition to the convergent and discriminant validity, the model investigated at
the crossing of variables will undergo a bootstrapping test of 500 resamples in
SmartPLS with the option “Individual Changes”, which presents the Student t
values for each standardized coefficient (path coefficients).
When t values are greater than 1.96, there is a probability of
error of less than 5% of the coefficient not being significant. All values
obtained are expected to be correlated, positively or negatively,
but significant.
Smaller
samples developed by beginning students or researchers can be obtained from the
use of electronic spreadsheets, from the “Filter Function” and the use of basic
statistics, such as mean, median, standard deviation and fashion, to the use of
more formulas or operations advanced, as the group manages to develop. This
development, per se, is already very relevant in the teaching-learning process,
as it is not about “content”, but about the development of knowledge and
skills.
The
data collection instrument is the result of an extensive validation process. In
general and summarized terms, it started with the exposition and debate of
ideas, passing through the elaboration of the variables to be contemplated,
since part of them is already investigated by different methods and other
research bodies. An analysis was also carried out between the pairs and their
respective adjustments, pre-test with a reduced sample, face validity and,
finally, by a committee of researchers gathered in a room and debating each
aspect until reaching the final model.
Having
gone through all the essential and already presented procedures for validating
the instrument, a questionnaire, each researcher formed his own team and
received a link to access the questionnaire. This link grants access to the
electronic questionnaire, which is hosted at the institutional level. The files
generated based on the questionnaires and responses of each group are managed
and stored on the website of a research institution. The purpose of this institutional
storage is to provide the institution with the possession and management of the
database, under the supervision of a researcher previously established as
responsible for the project as a whole.
One
of the by-products of this institutional research is to provide students of
different levels of education, the chance to integrate socio-economic research,
learning procedures, analysis and diffusion of results. Each research group
will be guided by the main researcher who, for every 100 respondents, will make
presentations on the data obtained. Such presentations may serve as a classroom
activity, Course Conclusion Papers (TCC) or publication of scientific articles
in annals and journals. The proposal consists of a kind of large umbrella,
metaphorically addressing, to allow other researchers from different areas of
knowledge to integrate the project and significantly increase the culture of
individual and institutional research.
4.
ANALYSIS OF RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The
data obtained through the questionnaire will be treated according to each
group. Thus, when reaching the minimum number of 100 respondents (n = 100), as
recommended by Hair (2005), so that minimal analysis of the correlations are
possible, the groups will proceed with the analysis. The initial proposal whose
objective is described throughout this study is to reach 2,400 respondents.
This objective is strategically set based on the number of groups that make up
this Applied Economic Research Project (PPEA). In quantitative terms, there are
24 groups of different levels of education, that is, Medium Level Integrated to
Technic, Technic, Graduation, and Postgraduate. All connected to public
education, research and extension institution located in the Alto do Tietê
Region.
As
for the use and dissemination of the data obtained and, mainly, of the analysis
developed due to the crossing of the data, it is intended that they occur in
evaluative activities of the classroom, for example, seminars. The possibility
of presenting Course Conclusion Papers (TCC) is also envisaged, both for
technical levels and for undergraduate and graduate courses. All analyzes may
generate scientific articles after the students work together with a respective
supervising professor for publication in congresses and / or academic journals
and journals.
In
this way, working with students and teachers together, the data tabulation can
be elaborated with criteria that meet specific demands according to the purpose
of the publication, improving the mutual capacities of teachers and students
and providing the institution with a research organization status. In this
regard, the dissemination of results obtained in the social media, in general,
stands out. Sites, printed newspapers, television programs, among others.
An
example of how the data analysis will be developed can be seen in Figure 1.
Note that the 37 variables that make up the Economic Observatory are arranged
in the columns of an electronic spreadsheet and this data can be manipulated,
according to the choice of a variable in comparison to another or even other
variables whose interest the researcher provides for the investigation.
Figure 1: Spreadsheet for data analysis
For
diagramming reasons, not all the investigated variables appear in Figure 1, it
is a demonstration whose purpose is to exemplify the structure of the database
using an image. In this structure, it is noted that there are some blank lines
that require the researcher to process the data, recommended by the scientific
literature Hair (2005), whose work requires that the data obtained receive
adequate and methodological treatment so that the crossing investigation can
proceed. of the variables.
Another example of how the data can be worked on, as seen in Table 1. It presents an example of how the distribution of men and women by the city in the Alto Tietê Region would occur. As noted, in general, there is an apparent balance in the data. Exception for the city of Ferraz de Vasconcelos, whose number of women presents a greater difference compared to the number of men. This finding could serve as information for business organizations, public policy planning, and measures, as well as new studies to investigate the possible causes of these effects.
Table 1: Male and
Female distribution by City
Male |
Female |
City |
45% |
55% |
Suzano |
65% |
35% |
Mogi
das Cruzes |
53% |
47% |
Arujá |
39% |
61% |
Ferraz
de Vasconcelos |
Source: The author
Many
other variables could be exposed here as demonstrating examples of how the data
analysis promises to be fruitful for the analysis of (un) employment in the
Alto Tietê Region, but it is believed that this conviction has already been
successful and that more examples would not fulfill this role by quantity, as
the focus was on quality and demonstrated possibility.
It is
also argued that measurement is a guiding principle for every manager.
Everything must be measured to know if, for example, the results obtained are
adequate for those planned. The feedback of the system should also be
considered, so that the information generated can allow adjustments to its
planning, in turn, to achieve more efficiency, efficacy, and effectiveness.
The
manager must, therefore, appropriate information so that the decision-making
process allows better decisions. This is one of the reasons why the Economic
Observatory is proposed. To better manage public and private, human, material,
financial and marketing resources. It is not just about improving yourself,
over time, but also in other regions of the country and abroad. All for the
benefit of social and economic progress.
5.
CONCLUSIONS
Economic
Observatory is an important way of obtaining information about an intended
object of study. Both by the methodology, as well as by the results and
involvement of different professional researchers and / or students, as well as
by public agents and by the private initiative, growth, and economic
development can be promoted by providing interested parties with information
that allows a more adequate and well-founded decision and use resources.
The
proposal to create the Economic Observatory in a research institution located
in the region studied is an alternative and, at the same time, an opportunity
for information management to promote the process and obtain results on the
profile of (des) employment in the region. Currently, the Economic Observatory
of this public research institution has the involvement of technical, higher
and postgraduate education. Altogether, around 2,400 responses are intended,
analyzed and presented by different groups of researchers.
Enlightenment
outside the research institute is also part of the objectives of this proposal.
It is expected that the media, as a whole, also express an interest in
participating in the dissemination of research findings so that it has its
strand in the language and format of the market and not just in the scientific
language in the form of articles.
New
studies may be presented containing analysis and developments of the reasons
for the findings at the crossing of the variables, to explain the reasons that
clarify the findings of the study, for example, because a city has a higher
number of women, as shown in the analysis in Table 1.
The
limitations of this study can be seen that at this stage employers'
organizations were not considered. This inclusion is intended for a second
stage of the Economic Observatory where they will be studied to generate
information about their profile, with a view, for example, to hiring
specialized labor, their needs, capacities, projects, and idleness. All this to
compose a database and allow adequate management of the information in a
mixture with the information about the researched individuals.
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